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How the budget grade works
Each town gets two separate ratings: a budget grade for its financial cushion, and a chance of an override vote for how likely voters are to be asked to raise taxes above the Prop 2½ limit. Both are our own estimates from public data. Both rank towns; neither is a probability.
The budget grade (A to F)
The budget grade measures the town's cushion: how much it has saved, how much it owes, and how much of its budget goes to debt payments. We average three years so one unusual year does not swing the budget grade.
| Input (weight) | Points, on a straight line between |
|---|---|
| Savings: certified free cash as a % of budget, FY2024-26 average (45) | 0 at 0% or less, 10 at 3%, 20 at 5%, 30 at 8%, 40 at 12%, 45 at 16%+ |
| Debt as a % of property value (EQV), FY2023-25 average, voter-approved debt at half weight (30) | 30 at 0.5% or less, 22 at 1.5%, 12 at 2.5%, 5 at 4%, 0 at 5%+ |
| Debt payments inside the tax cap (debt service minus voter-approved debt service), % of budget, FY2023-25 average (25) | 25 at 3% or less, 18 at 5%, 10 at 7%, 4 at 10%, 0 at 13%+ |
| Towns under 2,500 residents | Score pulled toward the state median by √(population / 2,500), because small-town figures swing a lot |
| Negative savings | 1 negative year in FY2024-26 caps the budget grade at D; 2 or more is F |
| Budget grade cutoffs | A 93+ (38 towns), B 79+ (138), C 63+ (130), D 50+ (27), F under 50 (18); ± within 2 points of a cutoff (93 towns) |
Budget grade words. A Excellent, B Solid, C Fair, D Weak, F Very weak. We show the word with every grade, because many readers take a C to mean failing. The word describes the town's financial cushion, not its rank.
Statewide percentile. "Better than X% of MA towns" is the share of all 351 towns with a lower fiscal score, rounded down; tied towns get the same figure. The median town scores 79, at the B/C line. The lowest towns show "bottom 1%".
Voter-approved debt. A debt exclusion is paid by a separate tax add-on outside the Prop 2½ cap, so it does not squeeze the operating budget, but residents still pay it. We take the state's figure for each town's voter-approved debt payments out of its debt payments, and count the same share of outstanding debt at half weight. In the median town about half of debt payments are voter-approved. Where the voter-approved amount was larger than general-fund debt payments (often regional school debt paid through the school assessment), the state median share is used.
Not in the budget grade: unused room under the tax cap (it counts only toward the override chance) and the trend in savings.
Ability to pay
Shown under every budget grade but kept out of it. It is a statewide band from income per resident (Census ACS 2020-24) and property value per resident (DLS equalized value, 2024). On the Cape and Islands, and in towns where 25% or more of homes are seasonal, we use income alone, because second homes push up property values there.
Chance of an override vote
A points count from four signals. Windows follow fiscal years, which start on 1 July.
| Signal | Points |
|---|---|
| Unused room under the tax cap, FY2026 (% of max levy): under 0.5% / 0.5-2% / 2-5% | +3 / +2 / +1 |
| Any override vote in the prior 10 fiscal years (since 1 Jul 2016) | +2 |
| Debt or capital exclusion passed in the last 5 fiscal years (since 1 Jul 2021), counted once | +1 |
| School spending 5-year growth above levy-limit growth over the same years | +1 |
| Levels | Low 0-2 (111 towns), Medium 3-4 (91), High 5+ (149) |
| Cape Cod routine voters: Barnstable County towns with override votes on 4+ dates since 1 Jul 2016 and 75%+ of questions passed (6 towns) | Points unchanged; High shown as High · routine in amber |
| Shown as context, not scored | School cut signal, teacher job changes, news reports, enrollment, savings |
Does it work?
We scored towns on the data available in July 2020 and July 2023, then checked what happened over the next three fiscal years.
- Towns rated High in July 2023 held an override vote in the next three years 62.5% of the time, against 33.6% for Medium and 9.0% for Low (from July 2020: 32.1%, 8.4% and 0.8%).
- Of towns graded F in July 2023, 52.9% had savings under 3% of budget three years later, against 27.3% for D, 10.9% for C, 4.4% for B and 0% for A.
- Ranking accuracy (AUC, where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect): 0.79 to 0.81 for the override chance and 0.79 for the budget grade.
- Caveats: only two test periods, and the share of towns holding a vote jumped from 13% to 31% between them. The signals and cutoffs were chosen after seeing both periods, so these results are optimistic. Neither rating predicts how fast tax bills grow.
The numbers in the town table
- Tax bill % of income: the FY2026 DLS average single-family tax bill divided by Census ACS 2020-24 median household income. The Census caps income at $250,000+, which affects Carlisle, Dover, Sherborn, Wellesley and Weston, so their share shows as ≤X%.
- Override vote ✕: any Prop 2½ override ballot date in the 5 years before 25 Oct 2026. A date is failed when every override question that day lost, and split when some passed and some failed.
- School enrollment: the 5-year change (DESE), weighted across every district that teaches the town's students by the town's Chapter 70 foundation enrollment.
- Median home price: median of arm's-length single-family sales in calendar 2024 (state LA3 sales data), shown only when a town had 5 or more sales.
- Takeaway and "why this budget grade": written by code from the same numbers as the budget grade and the override chance, so every town is described the same way. Takeaways are capped at 20 words.
Budget gap estimates
The "underwater" charts project what it costs to keep running a town at its recent pace against what it can raise without a vote. They are estimates, not reported deficits. See the method.
Holyoke is graded on FY2024 savings and FY2023-24 debt only; later years are not certified. Full source list: Sources & attribution.