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Is the budget underwater?

Belmont and Melrose voters have already filled budget gaps with overrides, adding about $2,000 to the average tax bill. In six towns, our estimates show the cost of running the town at its recent pace outgrowing what it can raise without a vote.

These charts estimate each town's structural gap under Prop 2½: what it costs to keep running the town at its recent pace, against what it can raise without a vote. They are estimates, not reported deficits. Towns must balance their budgets, so a gap gets closed with cuts, reserves, fees or an override vote.

Six towns on track to fall short by 2031, per home (estimates): Belmont $2,300, Lexington $1,600, Newton $1,400, Wellesley $1,000, Melrose $800, Barnstable $400 — Estimate Yearly gap per average single-family home in FY31 (July 2030-June 2031), if spending keeps its recent pace.

Estimated budget gap without a new vote. Estimates by BeforeYouBuyMA from MA DLS data (budgets, levy limits, new growth, state aid, tax bills, override votes), built 25 Oct 2026. Excludes debt voters approved separately.
Town	Gap per home, FY27 (now)	Gap per home, FY31	FY31 range per home	FY31 gap	% of budget, FY31	Spending growth, FY20-25	Revenue growth without a vote
Belmont	$390	$2,300	$1,700-2,300	$16.5M	8.2%	5.1%	3.3%
Lexington	$230	$1,600	$1,100-1,600	$20.9M	5.2%	5.5%	4.4%
Newton	$228	$1,400	$1,000-1,400	$38.2M	4.8%	4.5%	3.5%
Melrose	$136	$800	$500-800	$8.0M	5.0%	4.3%	3.3%
Wellesley	$151	$1,000	$700-1,000	$9.3M	3.6%	4.2%	3.5%
Barnstable	$69	$400	$200-400	$11.9M	4.0%	4.7%	3.8%

What voters filled: Belmont and Melrose

Belmont voters plugged a budget gap, adding about $2,000 to the average tax bill. Overrides voters approved in 2015 and 2024 now raise $14.5M a year. The bill without the overrides is an estimate. — Estimate Overrides voters approved in 2015 and 2024 now raise $14.5M a year. The bill without the overrides is an estimate.

Melrose voters plugged a budget gap, adding about $2,000 to the average tax bill. Overrides voters approved in 2019 and 2025 now raise $19.5M a year. The bill without the overrides is an estimate. — Estimate Overrides voters approved in 2019 and 2025 now raise $19.5M a year. The bill without the overrides is an estimate.

Belmont needed voters to plug a $2,000-per-home hole, and it's growing. Without the overrides, the FY31 gap would be $32.9M a year (estimate). — Estimate Without the overrides, the FY31 gap would be $32.9M a year (estimate).

Melrose needed voters to plug a $2,000-per-home hole, and it's growing. Without the overrides, the FY31 gap would be $30.1M a year (estimate). — Estimate Without the overrides, the FY31 gap would be $30.1M a year (estimate).

Budget gap by town

Belmont's budget is on track to fall about $2,300 per home short by 2031. Spending rose 5.1% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.3%. Estimated FY31 gap: $16.5M a year, 8.2% of the budget (range $1,700–$2,300 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 5.1% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.3%. Estimated FY31 gap: $16.5M a year, 8.2% of the budget (range $1,700–$2,300 per home).

Lexington's budget is on track to fall about $1,600 per home short by 2031. Spending rose 5.5% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 4.4%. Estimated FY31 gap: $20.9M a year, 5.2% of the budget (range $1,100–$1,600 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 5.5% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 4.4%. Estimated FY31 gap: $20.9M a year, 5.2% of the budget (range $1,100–$1,600 per home).

Newton's budget is on track to fall about $1,400 per home short by 2031. Spending rose 4.5% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.5%. Estimated FY31 gap: $38.2M a year, 4.8% of the budget (range $1,000–$1,400 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 4.5% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.5%. Estimated FY31 gap: $38.2M a year, 4.8% of the budget (range $1,000–$1,400 per home).

Melrose's 2025 override buys time, but it's about $800 per home short by 2031. Spending rose 4.3% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.3%. Estimated FY31 gap: $8.0M a year, 5.0% of the budget (range $500–$800 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 4.3% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.3%. Estimated FY31 gap: $8.0M a year, 5.0% of the budget (range $500–$800 per home).

Wellesley's budget is on track to fall about $1,000 per home short by 2031. Spending rose 4.2% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.4%. Estimated FY31 gap: $9.3M a year, 3.6% of the budget (range $700–$1,000 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 4.2% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.4%. Estimated FY31 gap: $9.3M a year, 3.6% of the budget (range $700–$1,000 per home).

Barnstable's gap is modest: about $400 per home by 2031. Spending rose 4.6% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.8%. Estimated FY31 gap: $11.9M a year, 4.0% of the budget (range $200–$400 per home). — Estimate Spending rose 4.6% a year (FY20–25); revenue without a vote, about 3.8%. Estimated FY31 gap: $11.9M a year, 4.0% of the budget (range $200–$400 per home).

Towns with full chart stories

Method and caveats

Cost: the FY26 budget (treated as balanced) grown at the town's FY20-25 general-fund spending growth, excluding debt service. The lower end of each range uses the slower FY15-25 pace.
What a town can raise without a vote: levy limit plus 2.5% a year, average FY22-26 new growth, and state aid and local receipts at their FY16-26 trend. No new overrides.
Per home: gap × FY26 average single-family tax bill ÷ total tax levy. Debt voters approved separately is left out on both sides.
Tax-bill charts: each approved override grows 2.5% a year, as the tax limit does, and is removed from the levy; the average bill shrinks by the same share. Belmont: $19,579 actual vs about $17,535 without; Melrose: $9,787 vs about $7,792 (FY26).
Data lag: spending data runs through FY25 and levy and revenue through FY26, so FY27 onward is projected.
Melrose sized its November 2025 override ($13.5M) to last through FY29 and is saving part of it, so its early-year gaps may be covered by those savings.
Newton: FY25 revenue included $72.25M of one-time money (DLS 'All Other', usually $27-32M), mainly FY24 mid-year appropriations of $49.0M from free cash and overlay surplus (including $22M into a school stabilization fund) plus $22.9M of FY25 transfers and fund balance. It sits in revenue, not in the spending that sets cost growth (FY25 spending rose 4.7%). Dropping FY25 from the growth rate gives $1,356 per home in FY31 instead of $1,415, so the estimate stays at about $1,400.

Revenue by Source (FY25 'All Other' by town) (MA DLS Databank)
Newton FY2026 Comptroller's Budget Analysis (FY24 and FY25 supplemental appropriations) (newtonma.gov)
Newton FY2025 Comptroller's Budget Analysis (newtonma.gov)
DLS Municipal Databank (mass.gov)